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課程概述 |
(l)風險管理簡介Introduction
(2)風險分析與評估Risk analysis & evaluation
(3)機率與風險Probability, uncertainty, and risk
(4)影響圖與決策樹Influence diagram and decision tree
(5)蒙地卡羅模擬 / Monte Carlo Simulation
(6)效用理論Utility theory / Allais paradox
(7)期望理論Prospect theory / Value function
(8)多準則決策Multi-attributes decision / Group decision
(9)分析階層法Analytic hierarchy process
(10)賽局理論Game theory
(11)估價與預測Estimating and forecasting
(12)工程保險Insurance
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